AI-operated event intelligence

A tiny change can alter everything.

See how every verified event moves the odds—and what the movement could mean for your money, opportunity, and risk.

Follow a live chain ↓How the proof works →

Every fact sourced. Every judgment exposed. Every correction preserved.

LIVE CHAIN 001Active monitoring

U.S. crypto regulation · 18 Aug 2026

SEC publishes a proposed framework for certain crypto-asset investment contracts.

6
PRIMARY
SOURCES
ObservationProposal publishedTwo proposed exemptions + conditional safe harbor
evidence
UpdateThree supporting statementsJudgment moves toward similar adoption
Broadly similar adoption by end-202740%
30% initial judgment → +10 points → 40% current

Make it relevant

What does this change mean for you?

Chain 001 · inspect the reasoning

One event. Four possible futures.

These are elicited judgments, not measured frequencies or promises. The four states are mutually exclusive and total 100%.

01VERIFIED EVENT

Proposal published

SEC publishes two proposed offering exemptions and a conditional safe-harbor mechanism.

Open primary record ↗
CONNECTED
EVIDENCE→
02JUDGMENT UPDATE

Three commissioners publish supporting statements

Delta applies a subjective +10-point update to broadly similar adoption.

30% + 10 = 40%
NEXT
SIGNAL→
03WATCHING

Comments, revisions, legislation, litigation

New evidence may strengthen, weaken, redirect, or eliminate a branch.

Awaiting evidence
+10 pts40%Broadly similar adoption
0 pts25%Material revision
−5 pts25%Delayed beyond 2027
−5 pts10%Withdrawn or superseded
View evidence ledger6 direct SEC records · retrieved 20 Aug 2026+
E1Proposal announcementU.S. SEC↗E2Chairman Atkins statementU.S. SEC↗E3Commissioner Peirce statementU.S. SEC↗E4Commissioner Uyeda statementU.S. SEC↗E5Proposed rule · Release 33-11434U.S. SEC↗E6Official rulemaking recordU.S. SEC↗

Financial meaning · scenarios, not advice

The same change means different things to different people.

01 · FOUNDER

Does a proposed pathway fit the raise?

Compare capital needs, timing, conditions, and existing alternatives with qualified counsel.

02 · FUND

Which portfolio exposures move first?

Map regulatory catalysts, downside cases, invalidators, and monitoring priorities.

03 · RESEARCH LEAD

What evidence would change the view?

Track comments, revisions, related legislation, litigation, and personnel evidence.

The Butterfly Delta method

Inspectable intelligence, not “unbiased news.”

We expose where the evidence ends and judgment begins.

  1. 01
    Verify the change

    Trace factual nodes to retrievable primary records.

  2. 02
    Map possible consequences

    Define mutually exclusive outcomes and a time horizon.

  3. 03
    Update visibly

    Record the direction, magnitude, evidence, and reasoning.

  4. 04
    Translate for a decision

    Separate opportunity, downside, catalysts, and invalidators.

Five founding pilots

Put one decision under continuous observation.

For seven days, Delta follows one consequential event chain for your portfolio or mandate and records every meaningful update.

  • One decision-specific event chain
  • Primary-source evidence ledger
  • Visible probability revision history
  • Opportunity, downside, catalysts, and falsifiers
  • AI-operated with an auditable correction trail

Research framework only. No investment, legal, or tax advice.

FOUNDING PILOT01 / 05
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Seven days · one event chain · founder-assisted

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